Walker Buehler and a mostly patchwork starting rotation have largely delivered for the 24-16 Padres.
David Frerker / Imagn Images
SAN DIEGO — For years, little about the San Diego Padres has been straightforward, and the 2026 season continues that trend with fresh contradictions.
A largely makeshift starting rotation has performed admirably, while an offense once expected to be deep has looked full of gaps. After 40 games, the Padres’ plus-three run differential suggests they should be 20-20. Yet, thanks to a dozen come-from-behind victories, they sit at 24-16. With seven losses in their last 12 games, their 97-win pace is likely unrealistic, as is the persistent underperformance of their star players. Here are four observations a quarter into a turbulent campaign.
**A Big Problem, But Maybe Not the Biggest**
In the third inning of Sunday’s game at Petco Park, Fernando Tatis Jr. crushed a 94.9 mph four-seam fastball to left-center field—his hardest-hit ball of the season. The projected 395-foot drive landed in the glove of St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Nathan Church, one of the deepest parts of the ballpark. Statcast says it would have been a home run in a dozen other MLB stadiums.
Tatis now has 167 plate appearances without a home run this season. The two-time Silver Slugger and two-time Platinum Glover has hit more Little League Grand Slams against the Padres than homers for San Diego. Nick Castellanos, who broke his bat before becoming the hero of Sunday’s 3-2 comeback win, has more home runs using Tatis’ bat than Tatis himself. Perhaps most troubling: Tatis is batting .172 against four-seamers with no extra-base hits, and he has only six extra-base hits against all pitch types. Recent batted balls suggest he may be nearing a return to form, but no one expects the 2021 version of Tatis to reappear anytime soon.
That doesn’t bode well for a bottom-10 offense, but it takes more than one batter to be that low. Tatis, Castellanos, Jake Cronenworth, Freddy Fermin, Ramón Laureano, Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are all below a .700 OPS start.
“It’s obvious; we’re not hitting,” Machado said after the Padres logged 14 combined hits against the Cardinals, their lowest-ever in a four-game series. “But we’re getting things done offensively, whatever it is—getting guys over, bunting, creating situations. I mean, we left seven on. I left four of them on myself. It could have been a completely different game if I shrink that deficit, which we need to do to get where we want to go.”
Xander Bogaerts and part-timers like Ty France, Miguel Andujar, and the injured Luis Campusano have helped buoy the lineup. But no one consistently strikes fear in opposing pitchers. Bogaerts leads qualifying Padres with a .437 slugging percentage, 55th in the majors.
**Looming Rotation Decisions**
Before Walker Buehler threw six innings of two-run ball Sunday to lower his ERA to 5.20, Lucas Giolito made his most promising start as a Padre. The veteran right-hander tossed six innings, showing improvement and giving the team a reason to think about upcoming roster choices. As the season progresses, the Padres will need to decide how to allocate innings among their starters, especially with Giolito and others vying for consistency.
