It’s unfortunate that the IIHF schedules all quarterfinal games simultaneously. Fans will have to choose which clash to watch in both the afternoon and evening slots, especially since each matchup carries its own intrigue. However, few encounters are as intense as the rivalry between Sweden and Finland. In theory, one could recall the classic Canada vs. Russia, but with Russia’s uncertain future in full international tournaments and their declining performance against Canada in recent years, the focus has shifted. Sweden and Finland, on the other hand, face each other four times a season in the Euro Hockey Tour alone.
At the World Championship, rosters are different, and a noticeable gap emerges. Sweden has been flawless so far, not losing a single point in seven games. They’ve scored 35 goals—just two fewer than the tournament leaders, the USA—and conceded only nine, the best defensive record by far. Their forward lines are evenly balanced, with danger coming from every trio. Twenty players have registered points, with leading scorers Erik Karlsson and Andre Burakovsky each tallying 10 points. Based on their performance so far, Sweden could already be handed the trophy.
In contrast, Finland appears to be clear underdogs. Surprisingly, Jukka Jalonen’s team barely scraped into the playoffs. If Austria had beaten Great Britain on the final day of the group stage, Sweden would have faced a different opponent. Still, against the other three playoff-bound teams in their group, Finland didn’t suffer major collapses. They were statistically outplayed by Switzerland, but that game was meaningless. They lost to the Czech Republic in the opening match only in a shootout. Against Canada, they led for long stretches, outshot their opponents, and lost only at the very end. Finland’s main problem is their offense. Among quarterfinalists, they have the fewest goals scored—21. Six of those came from forward Oliver Kapanen, who ranks fifth in goal-scoring and 29th in overall points; no other Finnish player is higher. That said, this match is a derby, and Finland will certainly be motivated to fight hard.
Bookmakers offer the following odds:
– Sweden victory: from 1.44 (BetBoom) to 1.51 (Liga Stavok, Olimpbet)
– Finland victory: from 5.20 (Liga Stavok) to 6.02 (BetBoom)